Short lessons by the author of the methodology — from raw flood maps to basis points on a loan.
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7 min · in production
LESSON 1
Reading a flood map
Return periods, climate scenarios, and the one idea people get wrong: undefended hazard — why a Dutch port can show two metres of water and still be dry.
Depth-damage functions and Eq. 3: how a metre of water becomes a share of asset value, why the curve you pick matters, and what 'expected' really means.
The econometrics: 951 real loans, Moody's default data, and why one standard deviation of expected damage is worth 99 basis points of default probability.